There was a bit of a pissing contest late in yesterday's diary, someone whining that I took thousands of words to basically say I didn't have a clue. Everyone's entitled to their opinion and, being a meteorologist, I've developed a pretty thick skin. Hehehe. So, I didn't reply, and on a personal level, I really couldn't care less about criticism from one person. But from a communication standpoint, I'm concerned that someone would come away thinking that. If you've got questions or think I'm being too vague or cagey in my assessment feel free to ask in the comments and I'll try my best to reply. I don't want anyone walking away from this confused, thinking I/we've got no idea about this thing. My goal here is to help inform, not bloviate or, worse yet, confuse.
Yes, I do play up the uncertainty and question marks. It's tough to forecast these things and errors happen, so I don't want anyone reading this to be caught unaware. But let me be clear... in my update and in the comments yesterday I did try to convey a pretty solid scientific assessment here that Irene would likely track a little east of NHC's track (at that time) and remain offshore of the Delmarva and New Jersey, which has important implications up into New York and New Jersey. That, to me, was the biggest question mark, and so that was my focus. I didn't want to slight North Carolina, but that part of the forecast is pretty straightforward - Irene's center should go through North Carolina most likely somewhere in the far east, near Morehead City. Thereafter, though I waffled and hedged a bit, I came to the conclusion that Irene should move up off the Delmarva and NJ, into central Long Island and central/eastern CT. If I communicated that poorly, or made it sound like pure dart-throwing guesswork... well, my bad. Anyway, to the situation at hand...
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