Update on Hurricane Earl Threat

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Tuesday August 31, 2010 · 5:48 AM PDT

2010/08/31 · 05:48

The first thing I want to do is make a clarification. Based on some comments I received I may not have been overly clear yesterday. I was favoring a more westward solution, closer to the coast, than NHC... in line with the "global models" (models which produce forecasts for the entire globe, rather than "regional" models which run on sub-domains). However, I was not (and still am not) forecasting or expecting an actual landfall. That is important, as Earl's strongest winds will be on his east side. So, if he fails to make landfall, no one is likely to see hurricane conditions. To be clear, depending on how close he comes to the shore, some folks could see tropical storm force winds. Moreover, his nearest pass is still just far enough out so that landfall cannot be written off. So... Earl remains a significant threat, but I did want to clarify that I did not and still do not think Earl makes landfall in the U.S. (I emphasize "in the U.S." because my focus is on the mainland U.S., but a Canadian Maritimes landfall is still very plausible). Anyway, on to the update...

millwx

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Monday August 30, 2010 · 6:40 AM PDT

2010/08/30 · 06:40

Doing this update in my downtime from work. So, I don't want to dawdle a whole heck of a lot. And please forgive any typos... they are inevitable with my sloppy hands, and in the interest of time, I won't proof-read. Perhaps I'll correct any errors, if I notice any, when I update later in the day. As such, let's just jump right to it, as hurricane Earl continues to pose a threat to the U.S. East Coast...

millwx

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Sunday August 29, 2010 · 9:56 AM PDT

2010/08/29 · 09:56

It's been a long while and I've mostly been in lurk mode of late. I visit the site multiple times per day, but only infrequently comment on diaries of particular interest. I'm not a big meta-person, and there's been a lot of that around here of late. And I'm torn between the "Obama's a disappointment" and "he's doing well under the circumstances" crowd... so I mainly stay out of the fray.

But, with a hurricane to POSSIBLY near the East Coast later this week, I'm back to try to keep my favorite online community abreast of the storm. First, my standard intro statement...

I understand that some on here dislike these diaries, esp. when they make it to the rec list, because they are totally off-topic to this site's primary objective and subject. I understand that objection. However, I'm just trying to provide a friendly and, hopefully, informative diary to my fellow Kossacks. So, if some folks see fit to rec it, so be it. If not, it will just roll of the recent diary list along with many others.

Anyway, now across the fold for an update on Hurricane Earl...

millwx

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Friday June 25, 2010 · 3:22 PM PDT

2010/06/25 · 15:22

This is off topic, having nothing to do with Democratic politics or current events. But this is a big deal in my world, and a touching, feel-good story that I've just got to share with everyone. I'm not trying to get kudos for myself, given my involvement in this... honest, I'm not!! Lol... in fact, it is my honor to be part of this story. (And, honestly, had the subject of this story been a bit more shrewd, my role really would've been unnecessary.) Anyway, here's the story... enjoy...

millwx

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Friday June 18, 2010 · 6:49 AM PDT

2010/06/18 · 06:49

With the 2010 hurricane season upon us, and expected to be a busy one, I wanted to take a moment to bring up the subject of hurricanes, as it relates to Global Warming. Although I am a hardline believer in Global Warming... or, reality, as is the case... I am not an alarmist. That's not to say that we are not near a critical tipping point. Indeed, we probably are... as climate researchers suggest. However, I believe we're not past the point of no return, and I also believe we have the ability to adapt or, through technological advancements, perhaps even put our climate change in reverse (through the greening of the planet, carbon sequestration, and/or other human ingenuity). Anyway, I digress... but my point is, as you will see... I'm going to point you to probably (IMO) the best research on Global Warming's effect on hurricanes, and it is a very apolitical, balanced, reality-based research. And, yet, it is extremely sobering.....

millwx

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Wednesday April 14, 2010 · 9:02 AM PDT

2010/04/14 · 09:02

I've promised this diary for months (years?). I've been lurking here for a long time now, not posting much recently (diaries or comments). So, any newbies around here may be totally unfamiliar with me, but I'm a meteorologist. I have a particular focus on hurricanes and post hurricane diaries here whenever there's a particular threat to the U.S. But more in line with political discussion is the issue of global warming or global climate change (I, for one, am not afraid of the boogieman term "global warming" as, indeed, the earth is warming). I have long promised a diary on global warming. I posted one long, long ago to mixed reviews as many readers had a "duh, no kidding" attitude (yes, I realize I'm preaching to the choir here). But with the resurgence of the "skeptic" community in the last couple of years, I hope the ground is more fertile for setting the record straight. Follow me below the fold...

millwx

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Friday August 28, 2009 · 5:21 AM PDT

2009/08/28 · 05:21

Pretty short and sweet this morning as we've got some good news on Danny. Some slightly surprising (not shockingly unexpected, but not really predicted to occur) developments over the past 24 hours are going to make Danny pretty much a non-issue. In fact, I wouldn't even bother posting an update today except that after yesterday forecast with much more significant impact expected, it seems important to get out here and advertise the changes. But, with little impact expected, I'll keep this diary short - for a change.

millwx

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Thursday August 27, 2009 · 6:29 AM PDT

2009/08/27 · 06:29

As explained in the updates on Hurricane Bill, my time is a bit pressed this season. That's why I dropped coverage of Bill without notice as soon as it was clear he would remain offshore (and I apologize if any of you were awaiting further updates). That's also why I did not post on Danny yesterday. But now that Danny has developed and is a clear threat to the East Coast (though, to be clear, it, too, may remain offshore), I'm trying to make the time to post. So, let's get to it...

millwx

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Wednesday August 19, 2009 · 6:44 AM PDT

2009/08/19 · 06:44

My apologies for not posting more on Hurricane Bill. Time has been limited for me lately (and, unfortunately, will continue to be so). As such, since Bill looked like a minimal threat, I was foregoing the updates. Some guidance does hint at a threat for eastern New England, though. So, I don't want to completely ignore Bill. So, below the fold I've got a brief (well, not THAT brief, but for me it is) update on Hurricane Bill...

millwx

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Sunday August 16, 2009 · 2:07 PM PDT

2009/08/16 · 14:07

Late post today. My schedule is really eating into my ability to post these updates. :(

Boy did this hurricane season flip the switch. From dead calm to a three-storm setup in the Atlantic. As we jump below the fold, I'll take a look at all three of these storms. But, as you'll see, I've decided to focus mostly on Bill. It is not the most threatening storm (Claudette is, as it is about to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle), but it is the most relevant storm (IMO) from a forecasting point of view. So, let's get to it...

millwx

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Saturday August 15, 2009 · 11:56 AM PDT

2009/08/15 · 11:56

Unless you're a newby to Daily Kos, you know what these updates are about. I've been less active in the political discussions of late on dKos, as I needed a break. My energy was sapped after the 2008 election followed by a series of gay marriage battles/storylines (Prop 8 challenges and decisions, Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, etc). But, with the 2009 hurricane season coming to life, I wanted to resume my updates for the dKos "family".

Note: While most of the community here seems to like these diaries, I am sensitive to some of the criticism (these are non-political and, thus, "off-topic", or these can lend to confusion, not assistance, if my forecast differs from the National Hurricane Center's). These critiques are not unfounded, but we hashed them out last year and the consensus, I think, was to continue these forecasts. So, that's what I'm doing. So, now, on to it...

millwx

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Tuesday May 19, 2009 · 7:08 AM PDT

2009/05/19 · 07:08

Good God have we gone "meta" lately. I was pleased to check in the morning and see, at least at one point, zero "meta" diaries on the Rec list.

In light of all the "meta" talk, and a handful of GBCW diaries - mostly due to the banning of an apparently somewhat popular diarist (unbeknownst to me... I've been on dKos practically since its inception, and though I've seen Toque's diaries, I never really followed them), I come here to rant today. Last summer I posted lots of hurricane diaries as something of a "public service" to fellow Kossacks. I will do the same this season, time permitting, if there are any threats. So, my diaries are usually content-heavy. Not this time. Time for a rant from me. Hope you don't mind...

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